1687-8] Attitude of William of Orange.-Birth of a Prince 241 hope of bringing England into the continental alliance by conciliating James himself. That this deduction was correct can be seen from the memoirs of James which, though not entirely composed by himself, substantially represent his views. He there explains that, in the war which was seen to be approaching, it seemed to him that France would attack and weaken the Dutch Republic. As the Dutch were our rivals in trade he thought that England might gain and could not lose by neutrality. This account omits one all-important consideration. James, though in his own way a national king, was not wholly swayed by cynical calculation of England's self-interest. He might perhaps have been willing in certain eventualities to act as the ally of Louis; he would certainly have been delighted to remain neutral. But, as he said on the eve of his downfall in 1688, he never would declare war upon France. To William the safety of Europe and of his own country was bound up with bringing England into the scale against France. The neutrality of James, therefore, compelled William and foreign diplomatists to interfere in England, and turned an internal struggle between King and people into an interfational event of the greatest magnitude. After May, 1687, the relations of William with the Opposition Lords, which up to this time appear to have been quite constitutional, began to develop into a conspiracy against James. If James would not join the coalition against Louis in Europe, William would join the Opposition Lords against James in England. Even during Dykvelt's mission Danby had let fall some dark hints about a design; and Shrewsbury, who came to Holland in August, may have gone further. But William was determined neither to hazard any rash or premature attempt, nor to appear in England as a foreign invader. Both of these resolutions induced slowness and caution, and deepen the obscurity which hangs over his policy during the winter of 1687. All that can be said with certainty is that, very early in 1688, he made it clear that he would take no action unless he received a definite invitation from leading Englishmen. This was secured to him in June, 1688; and the two events precipitating the crisis were the birth of a son to James, and the trial of the seven Bishops. It was known that James II's queen, Mary of Modena, was about to became a mother, and it was believed that the most momentous issues would be determined by the sex of her child. The party of prerogative declared that the birth of a son to James would solve all difficulties, and produce the discomfiture of the "Orangeists." At least one foreign diplomat had a different opinion. "Such an event," wrote Hoffmann, the Emperor's resident in London (April 2), "would only consolidate the union among them, increase their aversion from the King, and make them use every effort to prevent the Catholic succession to the Crown." The news of the birth of James Edward (the "Old Pretender") on June 10 speedily proved that Hoffmann was right. The "Orangeists " C. M. H. V. 16 242 The Seven Bishops. Invitation to William [1688 alleged that the Queen had never been with child, and that the pseudoprince had been smuggled up the backstairs in a warming-pan. The readiness with which this fable was circulated and believed is a measure of the unpopularity of James. But statesmen were not content with the effects of the warming-pan lie upon popular opinion. They speedily resolved that, since the birth of a son appeared to assure a Catholic successor to James, the only way of preventing this was to invoke the interference of the Prince of Orange. At this critical moment James succeeded in alienating the one great institution in the State not already hostile to him. The clergy of the Establishment held the doctrine of passive obedience so strongly that they advocated submission even to the decrees of a Nero. In 1687, James had rightly deemed their opposition almost unthinkable; in 1688, he took the only measure which could possibly have produced it. Not content with the establishment of practical toleration, he was determined to make the Establishment acknowledge the justice and wisdom of his policy. On May 4, 1688, he reissued the Declaration of Indulgence, and commanded the Anglican clergy to read it to their congregations. But even the advocates of non-resistance had no intention of becoming personal advocates of a measure which struck at their own supremacy. The Established Church was at length forced to oppose him in selfdefence. On May 18, Sancroft, Archbishop of Canterbury, and six other Bishops, petitioned to be excused reading the Declaration. In point of fact, very few of the clergy actually read it on either of the prescribed days (May 20 and 27). James could not attack the whole mass of the clergy; but he promptly indicted his episcopal petitioners for libel. He seems to have meant that they should be tried, condemned, and then released by royal pardon. The plan was clumsy and the error fatal. When the so-called martyrs of the Church passed to the Tower, every eye was fixed upon them; the soldiers at the gates knelt to receive their blessing. Popular enthusiasm penetrated the Law Courts; the judges were not wholly on the side of James, and the jury at length proved to be decisively against him. On June 30 the seven Bishops were acquitted amid indescribable enthusiasm. Halifax waved his hat in the face of the Court like a schoolboy, and the people lit bonfires in the streets and shouted themselves hoarse with exultation. On the same night seven men assembled at Shrewsbury's house and signed a letter of invitation to William. This letter, which asked the Prince of Orange to bring over an army and secure the liberties of the people, was carried to Holland by Admiral Herbert in the disguise of a common sailor. The signatories were the Earl of Devonshire, Henry Sydney, and Admiral Russell, who represented the extreme Whig party; Shrewsbury, a moderate Whig; Compton, Bishop of London, a Trimmer; Lumley, an ex-Catholic; and Danby, an ex-champion of prerogative. Two conspicuous Opposition Lords, the Marquis of Halifax and Lord 1688] Attitude of James. William's allies 243 Nottingham, stood aloof, and preferred to rely upon passive constitutional opposition. But the diverse character of the signatories shows how James had contrived to unite against himself almost all parties in the State. Besides the letter of invitation, William soon received assurances from Lord Churchill, Kirke, and Trelawney, leading officers in the army, from Vice-Admiral Herbert, whose influence was great with the navy, and finally from Sunderland, the most influential adviser of James. As Sunderland was at this moment receiving the gold of Louis, it is permissible to doubt whether he earned the gratitude of William. But apart from his assurances, William was confident of strong support in England, and forthwith began to organise his army and fleet for immediate action. In view of the intrigues above mentioned it can cause no surprise that Hoffmann should have reported in September that King James had against him almost everybody in his kingdom, and that even his soldiers had become "his most dangerous enemies." To secure himself against disaffection in the army, which had been infected by the "No Popery riots and Protestant vehemence of the capital, James had introduced some Irish troops into England in August. Their appearance occasioned murmurs, riots, discontent and the publication of the scurrilous ballad Lillibullero. So extraordinary was the popularity of this song that its author, Thomas Wharton, afterwards boasted that he had sung a king out of three kingdoms by it. James did not venture to land any more. Irish troops. He was equally afraid to turn for aid to France, for he knew that an open alliance with Louis would be dangerous in the existing state of English feeling, while a secret league was infinitely hazardous. Perhaps he would have risked it, had he realised the extent of his danger. Louis XIV had repeatedly sent warnings of the design of the Prince of Orange; but James, with an excess of cunning, argued that these were only pretexts for entrapping him into an alliance with France. He seems to have believed the assurances of Mary, William, and the Dutch ambassador, that no design against England was afoot. His memoirs relate that Sunderland never failed to ridicule the idea mercilessly when it was discussed in council. As to the motives of this most acute and perfidious of politicians, many conjectures have been offered; but the advantage of his policy to the cause of William remains undeniable. The task of William had only begun when his naval and military preparations were complete. He had to convince German Princes and Dutch burghers that their safety could only be assured by an expedition which would remove the Dutch army to England, and leave the German lands open to attack from the most powerful military sovereign in the world. The German Princes, with Frederick William of Brandenburg foremost among them, had hitherto remained more or less neutral. Though secretly hostile to Louis, they feared the French armies which had so often triumphed over the German, and doubted whether the Dutch navy would triumph over the English. But the Great Elector's 244 Policy of Louis XIV [1688 son, Frederick III, who succeeded him on April 29, 1688, finally brought Brandenburg out of its neutrality. He co-operated heartily with William, and lent him troops for his English expedition under the command of the famous Schomberg, the Protestant ex-Marshal of France. The Landgrave of Hesse-Cassel and the Brunswick-Lüneburg Duke at Celle speedily concluded treaties of alliance with William; the Elector of Hanover intimated approval; and the Elector of Saxony was drawn in. The Spanish Habsburg appears to have regarded with complacency the proposed expedition to dethrone a Catholic King, for his envoy at the Hague subsequently ordered masses to be sung for its success. His Austrian kinsman was more scrupulous, and it was not until William had established relations with the Pope (Innocent XI) that he made any impression on the Emperor. Leopold was at length reconciled to the enterprise by the Papal dispensation, and yielded a reluctant consent. Thus the Prince of Orange was assured of assistance from many foreign Princes, before his own people, through their organ, the States-General, had pronounced in its favour. While the destinies of Europe were suspended on the vote of the States-General, Louis XIV suddenly intervened and took the decision from its hands. The policy of Louis at this crisis can be best understood on the assumption that his attention was fixed upon Germany rather than upon England or Holland. He presumably thought the establishment of his own power on the Rhine to be easier and more immediately probable than the success of William in any design against England. Yet, during the trial of the Bishops he had vainly offered large sums of money and the loan of his fleet to James, and later had repeatedly warned him of William's designs. Losing patience, he at last attempted to force the English King's hand; but the result of his effort was only to play the game of his rival. On September 2, his ambassador, d'Avaux, made an announcement to the assembled States-General of the Dutch Republic of which the immediate effect was to secure for William the object at which he had so consistently aimed. D'Avaux pronounced the vast naval and military preparations of William to be a menace to England. Owing to the bonds of "friendship and alliance" existing between England and France, any enterprise undertaken by the Dutch against England would involve an immediate declaration of war from France. The States-General were struck dumb with rage by this haughty and insulting menace. The mighty armaments of William, which had appeared to lay a heavy burden upon his country, were now seen to be the instruments of its salvation. But one difficulty still remained. After the threats of Louis the Dutch were never likely to allow William to go on his apparently quixotic expedition to England. But just as the diplomacy of Louis had won over the Dutch to William's schemes of an alliance against France, the diplomacy of James was to reconcile them to his plan of an expedition against England. James received the news of Louis' friendly intervention in his favour 1688] The expedition sails 245 with the utmost embarrassment. Conscious of his weakness at home, he resolved not to compromise his position further by exciting suspicions about a secret engagement with France. At the moment when the aid of the French fleet was of vital importance, since his own fleet was smaller than that of the Dutch, James resolved to pose as the patriotic independent sovereign, secure in his island kingdom. He emphatically denied the existence of any alliance with France, and openly rejected her proffered assistance. By this masterpiece of folly he contrived not only to injure the feelings of the French King, but to awaken his suspicions. Louis was justly indignant and turned to pursue his own most pressing needs, well assured that James would soon find out the need of relying upon France. On September 25, Louis threw the whole of his vast military force, not upon the Dutch frontier, but against the middle Rhine. Thus the continued impolicy of James and the momentary misjudgment of Louis brought about what the ability of William himself could not perhaps have effected. The States-General, fully assured that the Dutch frontier could not be attacked in force before the end of the year, gave the long-desired consent, and bade the Prince of Orange God-speed on his bold venture for the English Crown. By September a large army and a vast fleet of transports had been collected, and in October all was ready. On October 19, Herbert embarked his squadron at Helvoetsluys, and the Dutch warships sailed from the Texel, only to be driven back by a terrific storm. The enterprise now stood confessed; and even James was aroused to a sense of impending danger, and employed the temporary respite in a desperate effort to restore his popularity. On October 27, he dismissed Sunderland, borrowed money from the French King, and implored his aid. He summoned before him the Bishops, whom he had once treated with such disdain, and begged for their advice. He gave back their privileges to the Universities, replaced many of the dismissed public servants, and restored the charters to London and many other cities. Finally, he dissolved the Ecclesiastical Commission and promised to summon a new Parliament in November. But James was as reckless in his policy of conciliation as he had once been in that of compulsion, and the bewildering suddenness of the changes inspired universal distrust. His concessions were openly attributed to motives of fear and necessity, created by the action of a foreign Prince. And, in truth, at this very moment a proclamation of the Prince of Orange lay in the portfolio of Fagel, demanding the very reforms that James was hurriedly conceding. In 1688, as in 1588 and 1798, the course of English history was profoundly affected by the chances of wind and weather. William had to wait long, chafing at a delay which seemed infinitely hazardous. But at last on November 1, the "Protestant breeze" bore gaily out to sea the whole vast flotilla of 600 ships, with 15,000 soldiers aboard. Like Henry of Bolingbroke and Edward of York, William had at first |