1. The Aristocrats, comprehending the higher members of the clergy, military, nobility, and the Parliaments of the whole kingdom. This forms a head without a body.

2. The moderate Royalists, who wish for a Constitution nearly similar to that of England.

3. The Republicans, who are willing to let their first magistracy be hereditary, but to make it very subordinate to the Legislature, and to have that Legislature consist of a single chamber.

4. The faction of Orleans.

The second and third descriptions are composed of honest, wellmeaning men, differing in opinion only, but both wishing the establishment of as great a degree of liberty as can be preserved. They are considered, together, as constituting the patriotic part of the Assembly, and they are supported by the soldiery of the army, the soldiery of the clergy, that is to say, the curés and monks, the dissenters, and part of the nobility, which is small, and the substantial Bourgeois of the whole nation. The part of these, collected in the cities, have formed themselves into municipal bodies, have chosen municipal representatives, and have organized an armed corps, considerably more numerous in the whole than the regular army. They have also the Ministry, such as it is, and as yet the King. Were the second and third parties, or rather these sections of the same party, to separate entirely, this great mass of power and wealth would be split, nobody knows how. But I do not think they will separate, because they have the same honest views; because each being confident of the rectitude of the other, there is no rancor between them; because they retain the desire of coalescing. In order to effect this, they not long ago proposed a conference, and desired it might be at my house, which gave me an opportunity of judging of their views. They discussed together their points of difference for six hours, and in the course of discussion agreed on mutual sacrifices. The effect of this agreement has been considerably defeated by the subsequent proceedings of the Assembly, but I do not know that it has been through any infidelity of the leaders to the compromise they had agreed on. Another powerful bond of union between these two parties, is our friend the Marquis de la Fayette. He left the Assembly while they as yet formed but one party. His attachment to both is equal, and he labors incessantly to keep them together. Should he be obliged to take part against

either, it will be against that which shall first pass the rubicon of conciliation with the other. I should hope, in this event, that his weight would be sufficient to turn the scale decidedly in favor of the other. His command of the armed militia of Paris, (thirty thousand in number, and comprehending the French guards, who are five thousand regulars,) and his influence with the municipality would secure their city. And though the armed militia and municipalities of the other cities are in no wise subordinate to those of Paris, yet they look up to them with respect, and look particularly to the Marquis de la Fayette as leading always to the rights of the people. This turn of things is so probable that I do not think either section of the Patriots will venture on any act which will place themselves in opposition to him.

This being the face of things, troubled as you will perceive, civil war is much talked of and expected; and this talk and expectation has a tendency to beget it. What are the events which may produce it ? 1. The want of bread, were it to produce a commencement of disorder, might ally itself to more permanent causes of discontent, and thus continue the effect beyond its first cause. The scarcity of bread, which continues very great amidst a plenty of corn, is an enigma which can be solved only by observing, that the furnishing the city is in the new municipality, not yet masters of their trade. 2. A public bankruptcy. Great numbers of the lower, as well as the higher, classes of the citizens depend for subsistence on their property in the public funds. 3. The absconding of the King from Versailles. This has for some time been apprehended as possible. In consequence of this apprehension, a person whose information would have weight wrote to the Count de Montmorin, abjuring him to prevent it by every possible means, and assuring him that the flight of the King would be the signal of a St. Barthelemi against the aristocrats in Paris, and perhaps through the Kingdom. M. de Montmorin shewed the letter to the Queen, who assured him solemnly that no such thing was in contemplation. His shewing it to the Queen proves he entertained the same mistrust with the public. It may be asked, what is the Queen disposed to do in the present situation of things? Whatever rage, pride, and fear can dictate in a breast which never knew the presence of one moral restraint.

Upon the whole, I do not see it as yet probable that any actual commotion will take place; and if it does take place, I have strong

confidence that the patriotic party will hold together, and their party in the nation be what I have described it. In this case, there would be against them the aristocracy and the faction of Orleans. This consists, at this time, of only the Catalines of the Assembly, and some of the lowest descriptions of the mob. Its force, within the Kingdom, must depend on how much of this last kind of people it can debauch with money from its present bias to the right cause. This bias is as strong as any one can be, in a class which must accept its bread from him who will give it. Its resources out of the Kingdom are not known. Without doubt, England will give money to produce and feed the fire, which should consume this country; but it is not probable she will engage in open war for that. If foreign troops should be furnished, it would be most probably by the King of Prussia, who seems to offer himself as the bull-dog of tyranny to all his neighbors. He might, too, be disturbed by the contagion of the same principles gaining his own subjects, as they have done those of the Austrian Netherlands, Leige, Cologne, and Hesse Cassel. The army of the latter Prince, joining with his subjects, are said to have possessed themselves of the treasures he had amassed, by hiring troops to conquer us, and by other iniquities. Fifty-four millions of livres is the sum mentioned. But all these means, external and internal, must prove inadequate to their ultimate object, if the nation be united, as it is at present. Expecting, within a few days, to leave Paris, and that this is my last letter on public subjects, I have indulged myself in giving you a general view of things as they appear to me at the time of my leaving them. Mr. Short will have the honor of continuing the narration, and of correcting it, where circumstances unknown or unforeseen may give a different turn to events.

I have the honor to be, &c.,

TH: JEFFERSON.

FROM THOMAS JEFFERSON TO JOHN JAY.

Dear Sir,

Havre, September 30, 1789.

No convenient ship having offered from any port of France, I have engaged one from London to take me up at Cowes, and am so far on my way thither. She will land me at Norfolk, and as I do not know any service that would be rendered by my repairing

immediately to New York, I propose, in order to economize time, to go directly to my own house, get through the business which calls. me there, and then repair to New York, where I shall be ready to reëmbark for Europe. But should there be any occasion for Government to receive any information I can give, immediately on my arrival I will go to New York on receiving your orders at Richmond. They may probably be there before me, as this goes by Mr. Trumbull, bound directly for New York.

I enclose you herewith the proceedings of the National Assembly on Saturday last, wherein you will perceive that the committee had approved the plan of M. Necker. I can add, from other sure. information received here, that the Assembly adopted it the same evening. This plan may possibly keep their payments alive till their new Government gets into motion, though I do not think it very certain. The public stocks lowered so exceedingly the last days of my stay at Paris, that I wrote to our bankers at Amsterdam to desire they would retain till further orders the thirty thousand gilders, or so much of it as had not yet come on. As to what might be already coming on, I recommended to Mr. Short to go and take the acceptance himself, and keep the bill in his own hands till the time of payment. He will by that time see what is best to be done with the money.

In taking leave of Monsieur de Montmorin, I asked him whether their West India ports would continue open to us awhile? He said they would be immediately declared open till February; and we may be sure they will be so till the next harvest. He agreed with me that there would be two or three months' provision for the whole kingdom wanting for the ensuing year. The consumption of bread for the whole kingdom is two millions of livres Tournois a day. The people pay the real price of their bread everywhere, except at Paris and Versailles. There the price is suffered to vary very little as to them, and Government pays the difference. It has been supposed that this difference for some time past has cost a million a week. I thought the occasion favorable to propose to Monsieur de Montmorin the free admission of our salted provisions, observing to him particularly, that our salted beef from the Eastern States could be dealt out to the people of Paris for five or six sous the pound, which is but half the common price they pay for fresh beef; that the Parisian, paying less for his meat, might pay more for his bread, and so relieve

Government from its enormous loss on that article. His ideas of this resource seemed unfavorable. We talked over the objections of the supposed unhealthiness of that food, its tendency to produce scurvy, the chance of its taking with a people habituated to fresh meat, their comparative qualities of rendering vegetables eatable, and the interests of the gabelles. He concluded with saying the experiment might be tried; and with desiring me to speak with Mr. Necker. I went to Mr. Necker, but he had gone to the National Assembly. On my return to Paris, therefore, I wrote to him on the subject, going over the objections which Monsieur de Montmorin had started. Mr. Short was to carry the letter himself and pursue the subject.

Having observed that our commerce to Havre is considerably on the increase, and that most of our vessels coming there, and especially those from the eastward, are obliged to make a voyage round the neighborhood of the Loire and Garonne for salt, a voyage attended with expense, delay, and more risk, I have obtained from the Farmers General that they shall be supplied from their magazines at Honfleur, opposite to Havre, at a mercantile price. They fix it at present at sixty livres the muid, which comes to about fifteen sous, or seven and a half pence sterling, our bushel; but it will vary as the price varies at the place from which they bring it. As this will be a great relief to such of our vessels coming to Havre as might wish to take back salt, it may, perhaps, be proper to notify it to our merchants.

I enclose you herewith Mr. Necker's discourse to the Assembly, which was not printed till 1 left Paris; and have the honor to be, &c., TH: JEFFERSON.